Riding profile
Suffolk Coastal
The question
Suffolk Coastal: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 82%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSuffolk Coastal | 29.6% | 24.8% | 17.0% | 14.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +4.3 | 19.3% +5.5 | 21.8% −4.8 | 11.4% +3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Suffolk Coastal, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Jenny Riddell-Carpenter
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenny Riddell-Carpenter Elected | Labour | 15,672 | 31.7 | — |
| Thérèse Coffey | Conservative | 14,602 | 29.5 | — |
| Matthew Jackson | Reform UK | 7,850 | 15.9 | — |
| Julia Ewart | Lib Dems | 6,947 | 14.1 | — |
| Julian Cusack | Green | 4,380 | 8.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029