Riding profile

Suffolk Coastal

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Suffolk Coastal: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.8
P(close race)
82%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.6%
  • Conservative 24.8%
  • Labour 17.0%
  • Lib Dems 14.9%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereSuffolk Coastal 29.6%24.8%17.0%14.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +4.3 19.3% +5.5 21.8% −4.8 11.4% +3.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Suffolk Coastal, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Jenny Riddell-Carpenter

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jenny Riddell-Carpenter Elected Labour 15,672 31.7
Thérèse Coffey Conservative 14,602 29.5
Matthew Jackson Reform UK 7,850 15.9
Julia Ewart Lib Dems 6,947 14.1
Julian Cusack Green 4,380 8.9

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
93,824
Median age
52
Employment rate
79.9%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029