Riding profile

Central Suffolk and North Ipswich

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Central Suffolk and North Ipswich: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Patrick Spencer

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 29.2%
  • Conservative 26.7%
  • Green 17.2%
  • Labour 14.0%
  • Lib Dems 10.2%
  • Other 2.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Green Labour
HereCentral Suffolk and North Ipswich 29.2%26.7%17.2%14.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +3.8 18.9% +7.8 11.8% +5.4 21.7% −7.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.8 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patrick Spencer Elected Conservative 15,144 32.6
Kevin Craig Labour 10,854 23.4
Tony Gould Reform UK 8,806 19.0
Daniel Pratt Green 5,652 12.2
Brett Mickelburgh Lib Dems 5,407 11.7
Charlie Caiger Other 366 0.8
Mike Hallatt Other 194 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
95,100
Median age
46
Employment rate
84.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029