Riding profile
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
The question
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich: will Independent lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Green | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCentral Suffolk and North Ipswich | 32.1% | 25.7% | 14.6% | 13.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +6.8 | 19.3% +6.4 | 10.8% +3.7 | 21.8% −8.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Patrick Spencer
Sits with Independent
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Spencer Elected | Conservative | 15,144 | 32.6 | — |
| Kevin Craig | Labour | 10,854 | 23.4 | — |
| Tony Gould | Reform UK | 8,806 | 19.0 | — |
| Daniel Pratt | Green | 5,652 | 12.2 | — |
| Brett Mickelburgh | Lib Dems | 5,407 | 11.7 | — |
| Charlie Caiger | Other | 366 | 0.8 | — |
| Mike Hallatt | Other | 194 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029