Riding profile

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Peter Prinsley

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 27.0%
  • Conservative 25.3%
  • Labour 19.3%
  • Green 17.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.7%
  • Other 3.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBury St Edmunds and Stowmarket 27.0%25.3%19.3%17.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +1.7 18.9% +6.4 21.7% −2.3 11.8% +5.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
2.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Prinsley Elected Labour 16,745 32.9
Will Tanner Conservative 15,293 30.1
Scott Hussey Reform UK 8,595 16.9
Emma Buckmaster Green 5,761 11.3
Peter McDonald Lib Dems 3,154 6.2
Jeremy Lee Other 819 1.6
Richard Baker-Howard Other 350 0.7
Darren Turner Other 176 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,768
Median age
44
Employment rate
69.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029