Riding profile
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
The question
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.3
- P(close race)
- 6%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBury St Edmunds and Stowmarket | 30.7% | 25.4% | 17.3% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +5.3 | 19.3% +6.0 | 21.8% −4.5 | 10.8% +3.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Peter Prinsley
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Prinsley Elected | Labour | 16,745 | 32.9 | — |
| Will Tanner | Conservative | 15,293 | 30.1 | — |
| Scott Hussey | Reform UK | 8,595 | 16.9 | — |
| Emma Buckmaster | Green | 5,761 | 11.3 | — |
| Peter McDonald | Lib Dems | 3,154 | 6.2 | — |
| Jeremy Lee | Other | 819 | 1.6 | — |
| Richard Baker-Howard | Other | 350 | 0.7 | — |
| Darren Turner | Other | 176 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029