Riding profile
South West Norfolk
The question
South West Norfolk: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 11.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Other | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth West Norfolk | 34.3% | 22.5% | 13.4% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +9.0 | 19.3% +3.2 | 5.0% +8.4 | 21.8% −8.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South West Norfolk, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 34% vote share, against 22% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Terry Jermy
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Jermy Elected | Labour | 11,847 | 26.7 | — |
| Liz Truss | Conservative | 11,217 | 25.3 | — |
| Tobias McKenzie | Reform UK | 9,958 | 22.5 | — |
| James Bagge | Other | 6,282 | 14.2 | — |
| Josie Ratcliffe | Lib Dems | 2,618 | 5.9 | — |
| Pallavi Devulapalli | Green | 1,838 | 4.2 | — |
| Earl Elvis Of East Anglia | Other | 338 | 0.8 | — |
| Gary Conway | Other | 160 | 0.4 | — |
| Lorraine Douglas | Other | 77 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029