South Holland and The Deepings
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Holland and The Deepings | 32.8% | 32.7% | 14.0% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 22.3%+10.5 | 20.0%+12.6 | 26.5%−12.5 | 5.1%+5.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,507 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 80.9% |
Current member
Sir John Hayes · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 14.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Hayes Elected | Conservative | 17,462 | 38.0 |
| Matt Swainson | Reform UK | 10,606 | 23.1 |
| Paul Hilliar | Labour | 9,086 | 19.8 |
| Mark Le Sage | Other | 5,031 | 11.0 |
| Jack Braginton | Lib Dems | 1,945 | 4.2 |
| Rhys Baker | Green | 1,800 | 3.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North West Norfolk Conservative, toss-up
- Boston and Skegness Reform UK, safe seat
- North East Cambridgeshire Conservative, toss-up
- South West Norfolk Reform UK, safe seat
- Peterborough Conservative, toss-up
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire Lib Dems, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated