Riding profile
South Holland and The Deepings
The question
South Holland and The Deepings: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Holland and The Deepings | 34.8% | 31.4% | 10.7% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +9.4 | 19.3% +12.1 | 21.8% −11.1 | 5.0% +5.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
South Holland and The Deepings, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir John Hayes
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hayes Elected | Conservative | 17,462 | 38.0 | — |
| Matt Swainson | Reform UK | 10,606 | 23.1 | — |
| Paul Hilliar | Labour | 9,086 | 19.8 | — |
| Mark Le Sage | Other | 5,031 | 10.9 | — |
| Jack Braginton | Lib Dems | 1,945 | 4.2 | — |
| Rhys Baker | Green | 1,800 | 3.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029