Riding profile
South Holland and The Deepings
The question
South Holland and The Deepings: will Conservative lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
South Holland and The Deepings, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 30% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sir John Hayes
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Other | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth Holland and The Deepings | 36.5% | 29.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +11.1 | 18.9% +10.9 | 4.8% +4.6 | 21.7% −12.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Hayes Elected | Conservative | 17,462 | 38.0 | — |
| Matt Swainson | Reform UK | 10,606 | 23.1 | — |
| Paul Hilliar | Labour | 9,086 | 19.8 | — |
| Mark Le Sage | Other | 5,031 | 10.9 | — |
| Jack Braginton | Lib Dems | 1,945 | 4.2 | — |
| Rhys Baker | Green | 1,800 | 3.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029