Riding profile
Boston and Skegness
The question
Boston and Skegness: a safe seat for Reform UK?
Editorial read
Boston and Skegness, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Reform UK in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 47% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Richard Tice
Sits with Reform UK
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBoston and Skegness | 46.8% | 26.7% | 9.1% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +21.5 | 18.9% +7.8 | 21.7% −12.6 | 11.8% −4.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Tice Elected | Reform UK | 15,520 | 38.4 | — |
| Matt Warman | Conservative | 13,510 | 33.4 | — |
| Alexandra Fawbert | Labour | 7,629 | 18.9 | — |
| Chris Moore | Green | 1,506 | 3.7 | — |
| Richard Lloyd | Lib Dems | 1,375 | 3.4 | — |
| David Dickason | Other | 518 | 1.3 | — |
| Mike Gilbert | Other | 397 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029