Riding profile

Boston and Skegness

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Boston and Skegness: a safe seat for Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 44.5%
  • Conservative 28.3%
  • Labour 10.3%
  • Green 7.7%
  • Other 4.9%
  • Lib Dems 4.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereBoston and Skegness 44.5%28.3%10.3%7.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +19.1 19.3% +9.0 21.8% −11.5 10.8% −3.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Boston and Skegness, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Reform UK in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 44% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Richard Tice

Sits with Reform UK

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Reform UK
Margin
5.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Richard Tice Elected Reform UK 15,520 38.4 —
Matt Warman Conservative 13,510 33.4 —
Alexandra Fawbert Labour 7,629 18.9 —
Chris Moore Green 1,506 3.7 —
Richard Lloyd Lib Dems 1,375 3.4 —
David Dickason Other 518 1.3 —
Mike Gilbert Other 397 1.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
117,072
Median age
47
Employment rate
69.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029