Riding profile
North West Cambridgeshire
The question
North West Cambridgeshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
North West Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sam Carling
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth West Cambridgeshire | 30.3% | 27.9% | 20.5% | 11.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.9 | 18.9% +9.0 | 21.7% −1.1 | 11.8% −0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Carling Elected | Labour | 14,785 | 33.3 | — |
| Shailesh Vara | Conservative | 14,746 | 33.2 | — |
| James Sidlow | Reform UK | 8,741 | 19.7 | — |
| Bridget Smith | Lib Dems | 3,192 | 7.2 | — |
| Elliot Tong | Green | 2,960 | 6.7 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029