Riding profile

North West Cambridgeshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North West Cambridgeshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 32.2%
  • Conservative 28.4%
  • Labour 18.5%
  • Green 10.5%
  • Lib Dems 8.9%
  • Other 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereNorth West Cambridgeshire 32.2%28.4%18.5%10.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.8 19.3% +9.1 21.8% −3.4 10.8% −0.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North West Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sam Carling

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sam Carling Elected Labour 14,785 33.3 —
Shailesh Vara Conservative 14,746 33.2 —
James Sidlow Reform UK 8,741 19.7 —
Bridget Smith Lib Dems 3,192 7.2 —
Elliot Tong Green 2,960 6.7 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,431
Median age
38
Employment rate
74.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029