Riding profile

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 34.0%
  • Reform UK 21.8%
  • Conservative 21.5%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Labour 7.4%
  • Other 6.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Reform UK Conservative Green
HereSt Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire 34.0%21.8%21.5%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +22.6 25.4% −3.6 19.3% +2.2 10.8% −2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ian Sollom

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
8.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ian Sollom Elected Lib Dems 19,517 36.9
Anthony Browne Conservative 14,896 28.2
Marianna Masters Labour 6,918 13.1
Guy Lachlan Reform UK 5,673 10.7
Stephen Ferguson Other 2,941 5.6
Kathryn Fisher Green 2,663 5.0
Bev White Other 274 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,460
Median age
40
Employment rate
82.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029