Riding profile

Ely and East Cambridgeshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Ely and East Cambridgeshire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Ely and East Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Charlotte Cane

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 26.8%
  • Conservative 25.7%
  • Reform UK 24.1%
  • Labour 11.9%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Other 2.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Labour
HereEly and East Cambridgeshire 26.8%25.7%24.1%11.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +15.1 18.9% +6.8 25.3% −1.2 21.7% −9.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
0.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Charlotte Cane Elected Lib Dems 17,127 32.7
Lucy Frazer Conservative 16,632 31.8
Elizabeth McWilliams Labour 9,160 17.5
Ryan Coogan Reform UK 6,443 12.3
Andy Cogan Green 2,359 4.5
Hoo-Ray Henry Other 271 0.5
Robert Bayley Other 172 0.3
Obi Monye Other 103 0.2
Rob Rawlins Other 102 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
107,563
Median age
43
Employment rate
82.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029