Riding profile
Ely and East Cambridgeshire
The question
Ely and East Cambridgeshire: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEly and East Cambridgeshire | 31.1% | 24.5% | 24.0% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +19.8 | 25.4% −0.9 | 19.3% +4.7 | 21.8% −12.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ely and East Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Charlotte Cane
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte Cane Elected | Lib Dems | 17,127 | 32.7 | — |
| Lucy Frazer | Conservative | 16,632 | 31.8 | — |
| Elizabeth McWilliams | Labour | 9,160 | 17.5 | — |
| Ryan Coogan | Reform UK | 6,443 | 12.3 | — |
| Andy Cogan | Green | 2,359 | 4.5 | — |
| Hoo-Ray Henry | Other | 271 | 0.5 | — |
| Robert Bayley | Other | 172 | 0.3 | — |
| Obi Monye | Other | 103 | 0.2 | — |
| Rob Rawlins | Other | 102 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029