Riding profile

North East Cambridgeshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

North East Cambridgeshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 35.5%
  • Conservative 33.4%
  • Labour 10.9%
  • Lib Dems 7.8%
  • Green 7.6%
  • Other 4.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Lib Dems
HereNorth East Cambridgeshire 35.5%33.4%10.9%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +10.2 19.3% +14.1 21.8% −10.9 11.4% −3.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

North East Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 36% vote share, against 33% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Steve Barclay

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
18.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Steve Barclay Elected Conservative 16,246 41.5 —
Chris Thornhill Reform UK 9,057 23.1 —
Javeria Hussain Labour 8,008 20.4 —
David Chalmers Lib Dems 2,716 6.9 —
Andrew Crawford Green 2,001 5.1 —
David Patrick Other 958 2.5 —
Clayton Payne Other 190 0.5 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,035
Median age
45
Employment rate
78.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029