Riding profile
North East Cambridgeshire
The question
North East Cambridgeshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
North East Cambridgeshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 34% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Steve Barclay
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 99%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth East Cambridgeshire | 34.7% | 34.1% | 10.8% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +9.4 | 18.9% +15.2 | 21.7% −10.9 | 11.8% −2.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Barclay Elected | Conservative | 16,246 | 41.5 | — |
| Chris Thornhill | Reform UK | 9,057 | 23.1 | — |
| Javeria Hussain | Labour | 8,008 | 20.4 | — |
| David Chalmers | Lib Dems | 2,716 | 6.9 | — |
| Andrew Crawford | Green | 2,001 | 5.1 | — |
| David Patrick | Other | 958 | 2.5 | — |
| Clayton Payne | Other | 190 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029