Riding profile
Peterborough
The question
Peterborough: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.3
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePeterborough | 26.6% | 25.3% | 19.7% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +7.2 | 25.4% −0.1 | 21.8% −2.2 | 5.0% +7.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Peterborough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 27% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Andrew Pakes
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Pakes Elected | Labour | 13,418 | 32.0 | — |
| Paul Bristow | Conservative | 13,300 | 31.8 | — |
| Sue Morris | Reform UK | 5,379 | 12.8 | — |
| Amjad Hussain | Other | 5,051 | 12.1 | — |
| Nicola Day | Green | 2,542 | 6.1 | — |
| Nick Sandford | Lib Dems | 1,746 | 4.2 | — |
| Tom Rogers | Other | 225 | 0.5 | — |
| Zahid Khan | Other | 211 | 0.5 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- North West CambridgeshireReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- HuntingdonConservative Toss-upOpen →
- Boston and SkegnessReform UK Safe seatOpen →
- North East CambridgeshireReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Corby and East NorthamptonshireReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- St Neots and Mid CambridgeshireLib Dems Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029