Riding profile

Peterborough

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east of england

The question

Peterborough: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Peterborough, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 0-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 26% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Andrew Pakes

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
67%
Mean margin (pts)
0.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 26.0%
  • Conservative 25.9%
  • Labour 19.5%
  • Green 11.6%
  • Other 11.1%
  • Lib Dems 5.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HerePeterborough 26.0%25.9%19.5%11.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +0.6 18.9% +7.1 21.7% −2.1 11.8% −0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
0.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Andrew Pakes Elected Labour 13,418 32.0
Paul Bristow Conservative 13,300 31.8
Sue Morris Reform UK 5,379 12.8
Amjad Hussain Other 5,051 12.1
Nicola Day Green 2,542 6.1
Nick Sandford Lib Dems 1,746 4.2
Tom Rogers Other 225 0.5
Zahid Khan Other 211 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
129,996
Median age
36
Employment rate
76.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029