Riding profile

Corby and East Northamptonshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Corby and East Northamptonshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 30.6%
  • Labour 26.0%
  • Conservative 24.9%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Lib Dems 6.3%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Labour Conservative Green
HereCorby and East Northamptonshire 30.6%26.0%24.9%9.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +5.3 21.8% +4.2 19.3% +5.5 10.8% −1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Corby and East Northamptonshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lee Barron

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lee Barron Elected Labour 21,020 42.4
Tom Pursglove Conservative 14,689 29.6
Eddie McDonald Reform UK 8,760 17.7
Lee Forster Green 2,507 5.1
Chris Lofts Lib Dems 2,191 4.4
Karen Blott Other 422 0.8

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
118,206
Median age
40
Employment rate
81.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029