Riding profile

Wellingborough and Rushden

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Wellingborough and Rushden: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 34.8%
  • Conservative 24.3%
  • Labour 22.6%
  • Green 10.4%
  • Lib Dems 5.3%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereWellingborough and Rushden 34.8%24.3%22.6%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +9.5 19.3% +5.0 21.8% +0.8 10.8% −0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Wellingborough and Rushden, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 35% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gen Kitchen

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-02-15
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
12.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gen Kitchen Elected Labour 17,734 40.3 —
David Goss Conservative 12,248 27.9 —
Ben Habib Reform UK 9,456 21.5 —
Paul Mannion Green 2,704 6.2 —
Christopher Townsend Lib Dems 1,570 3.6 —
Jeremy Brittin Other 273 0.6 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
113,555
Median age
40
Employment rate
71.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029