Riding profile

Milton Keynes North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Milton Keynes North: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Milton Keynes North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Curtis

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 27.7%
  • Reform UK 25.0%
  • Conservative 24.9%
  • Green 12.5%
  • Lib Dems 8.5%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereMilton Keynes North 27.7%25.0%24.9%12.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +6.1 25.3% −0.3 18.9% +6.0 11.8% +0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-10.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Curtis Elected Labour 19,318 42.0
Ben Everitt Conservative 13,888 30.2
Jane Duckworth Reform UK 6,164 13.4
Clare Tevlin Lib Dems 3,365 7.3
Alan Francis Green 3,242 7.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,650
Median age
40
Employment rate
78.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029