Monday, November 2, 2026
U.S. midterms in 1 day

Milton Keynes North

Westminster constituency · England · South East

Forecast of November 2, 2026

Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 33.7%
  • Conservative 26.5%
  • Reform UK 21.8%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 1.8%

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
Milton Keynes North 33.7%26.5%21.8%9.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 26.5%+7.2 20.0%+6.5 22.3%−0.5 9.7%+0.1

Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.

Local profile

Population100,650
Median age40
Employment rate78.1%

Source: Office for National Statistics: mid-2022 population, January 2026 labour market

Current member

Chris Curtis · Labour

In office since July 4, 2024. 59th Parliament.

Previous election (2024)

Labour won by 11.8 points.

Our current projection: Labour ahead by 7.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2024

Candidate Party Votes %
Chris Curtis Elected Labour 19,318 42.0
Ben Everitt Conservative 13,888 30.2
Jane Duckworth Reform UK 6,164 13.4
Clare Tevlin Lib Dems 3,365 7.3
Alan Francis Green 3,242 7.1

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shireSNP76%1.2-point gap
  2. Bury St Edmunds and StowmarketReform UK46%1.4-point gap
  3. Romsey and Southampton NorthConservative63%1.4-point gap
Forecast updated