Riding profile

Milton Keynes North

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Milton Keynes North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
0.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 26.9%
  • Conservative 26.1%
  • Reform UK 23.9%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 9.2%
  • Other 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereMilton Keynes North 26.9%26.1%23.9%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +5.1 19.3% +6.8 25.4% −1.5 10.8% +1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Milton Keynes North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 27% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Chris Curtis

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
11.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-11.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Chris Curtis Elected Labour 19,318 42.0 —
Ben Everitt Conservative 13,888 30.2 —
Jane Duckworth Reform UK 6,164 13.4 —
Clare Tevlin Lib Dems 3,365 7.3 —
Alan Francis Green 3,242 7.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,650
Median age
40
Employment rate
78.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029