Northampton South
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton South | 30.0% | 26.7% | 25.6% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+3.5 | 22.3%+4.4 | 20.0%+5.5 | 9.7%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,318 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Mike Reader · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reader Elected | Labour | 16,890 | 38.5 |
| Andrew Lewer | Conservative | 12,819 | 29.2 |
| Tony Owens | Reform UK | 8,210 | 18.7 |
| Jill Hope | Lib Dems | 3,193 | 7.3 |
| Simon Sneddon | Green | 2,398 | 5.5 |
| Katie Simpson | Other | 296 | 0.7 |
| Penelope Tollitt | Other | 98 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northampton North Labour, safe seat
- Daventry Conservative, toss-up
- South Northamptonshire Conservative, safe seat
- Milton Keynes North Labour, competitive
- Kettering Labour, toss-up
- Wellingborough and Rushden Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated