Riding profile
Northampton South
The question
Northampton South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Editorial read
Northampton South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mike Reader
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorthampton South | 30.0% | 24.9% | 24.2% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% +4.7 | 21.7% +3.3 | 18.9% +5.3 | 11.8% −1.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reader Elected | Labour | 16,890 | 38.5 | — |
| Andrew Lewer | Conservative | 12,819 | 29.2 | — |
| Tony Owens | Reform UK | 8,210 | 18.7 | — |
| Jill Hope | Lib Dems | 3,193 | 7.3 | — |
| Simon Sneddon | Green | 2,398 | 5.5 | — |
| Katie Simpson | Other | 296 | 0.7 | — |
| Penelope Tollitt | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029