Riding profile
Northampton South
The question
Northampton South: will Labour lose this seat to Reform UK?
Current forecast
Reform UK
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.1
- P(close race)
- 26%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorthampton South | 30.1% | 25.0% | 23.6% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.4% +4.7 | 19.3% +5.7 | 21.8% +1.8 | 10.8% −0.9 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Northampton South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Mike Reader
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reader Elected | Labour | 16,890 | 38.5 | — |
| Andrew Lewer | Conservative | 12,819 | 29.2 | — |
| Tony Owens | Reform UK | 8,210 | 18.7 | — |
| Jill Hope | Lib Dems | 3,193 | 7.3 | — |
| Simon Sneddon | Green | 2,398 | 5.5 | — |
| Katie Simpson | Other | 296 | 0.7 | — |
| Penelope Tollitt | Other | 98 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029