Riding profile

Northampton North

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Northampton North: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Northampton North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Lucy Rigby

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.3
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 28.8%
  • Reform UK 28.5%
  • Conservative 18.4%
  • Green 10.6%
  • Lib Dems 7.3%
  • Other 6.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Reform UK Conservative Green
HereNorthampton North 28.8%28.5%18.4%10.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +7.1 25.3% +3.2 18.9% −0.5 11.8% −1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
21.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lucy Rigby Elected Labour 18,209 43.5
Dan Bennett Conservative 9,195 22.0
Antony Antoniou Reform UK 7,010 16.8
Eishar Bassan Green 2,558 6.1
Christopher Leggett Lib Dems 2,251 5.4
Khalid Razzaq Other 1,531 3.7
Paul Clark Other 1,059 2.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
129,612
Median age
36
Employment rate
76.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029