Riding profile

Kettering

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Kettering: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.2
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.9%
  • Conservative 24.7%
  • Labour 20.8%
  • Green 16.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.6%
  • Other 4.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereKettering 28.9%24.7%20.8%16.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +3.6 19.3% +5.4 21.8% −1.1 10.8% +5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Kettering, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 29% vote share, against 25% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Rosie Wrighting

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rosie Wrighting Elected Labour 18,009 35.9 —
Philip Hollobone Conservative 14,189 28.3 —
Crispian Besley Reform UK 8,468 16.9 —
Emily Fedorowycz Green 7,004 13.9 —
Sarah Ryan Lib Dems 1,357 2.7 —
Jim Hakewill Other 1,057 2.1 —
Matthew Murphy Other 85 0.2 —
Jehad Abduramadan Other 62 0.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,644
Median age
41
Employment rate
73.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029