Riding profile

Kettering

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Kettering: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Kettering, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 28% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Rosie Wrighting

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.9
P(close race)
71%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 28.1%
  • Conservative 23.2%
  • Labour 21.5%
  • Green 18.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.8%
  • Other 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereKettering 28.1%23.2%21.5%18.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.3% +2.8 18.9% +4.3 21.7% −0.2 11.8% +6.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
7.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rosie Wrighting Elected Labour 18,009 35.9
Philip Hollobone Conservative 14,189 28.3
Crispian Besley Reform UK 8,468 16.9
Emily Fedorowycz Green 7,004 13.9
Sarah Ryan Lib Dems 1,357 2.7
Jim Hakewill Other 1,057 2.1
Matthew Murphy Other 85 0.2
Jehad Abduramadan Other 62 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,644
Median age
41
Employment rate
73.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029