Riding profile

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.1%
  • Reform UK 24.1%
  • Labour 20.7%
  • Green 11.3%
  • Lib Dems 10.7%
  • Other 1.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereHarborough, Oadby and Wigston 31.1%24.1%20.7%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +11.8 25.4% −1.3 21.8% −1.1 10.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Neil O'Brien

Sits with Conservative

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Neil O'Brien Elected Conservative 18,614 36.9 —
Hajira Piranie Labour 16,236 32.2 —
Danuta Jeeves Reform UK 6,332 12.6 —
Phil Knowles Lib Dems 4,732 9.4 —
Darren Woodiwiss Green 4,269 8.5 —
Robin Lambert Other 203 0.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,155
Median age
43
Employment rate
82.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029