Riding profile
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
The question
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Neil O'Brien
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarborough, Oadby and Wigston | 30.7% | 23.7% | 21.0% | 12.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +11.8 | 25.3% −1.6 | 21.7% −0.7 | 11.8% +0.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Brien Elected | Conservative | 18,614 | 36.9 | — |
| Hajira Piranie | Labour | 16,236 | 32.2 | — |
| Danuta Jeeves | Reform UK | 6,332 | 12.6 | — |
| Phil Knowles | Lib Dems | 4,732 | 9.4 | — |
| Darren Woodiwiss | Green | 4,269 | 8.5 | — |
| Robin Lambert | Other | 203 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029