Riding profile

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Editorial read

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Neil O'Brien

Sits with Conservative

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 30.7%
  • Reform UK 23.7%
  • Labour 21.0%
  • Green 12.4%
  • Lib Dems 10.0%
  • Other 1.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereHarborough, Oadby and Wigston 30.7%23.7%21.0%12.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +11.8 25.3% −1.6 21.7% −0.7 11.8% +0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Neil O'Brien Elected Conservative 18,614 36.9
Hajira Piranie Labour 16,236 32.2
Danuta Jeeves Reform UK 6,332 12.6
Phil Knowles Lib Dems 4,732 9.4
Darren Woodiwiss Green 4,269 8.5
Robin Lambert Other 203 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
103,155
Median age
43
Employment rate
82.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029