Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harborough, Oadby and Wigston | 32.7% | 24.0% | 21.1% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.0%+12.6 | 26.5%−2.5 | 22.3%−1.1 | 9.7%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,155 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 82.6% |
Current member
Neil O'Brien · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Brien Elected | Conservative | 18,614 | 36.9 |
| Hajira Piranie | Labour | 16,236 | 32.2 |
| Danuta Jeeves | Reform UK | 6,332 | 12.6 |
| Phil Knowles | Lib Dems | 4,732 | 9.4 |
| Darren Woodiwiss | Green | 4,269 | 8.5 |
| Robin Lambert | Other | 203 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leicester East Conservative, safe seat
- Leicester South Other, competitive
- South Leicestershire Conservative, toss-up
- Leicester West Labour, safe seat
- Mid Leicestershire Conservative, competitive
- Daventry Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated