Riding profile

Leicester South

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Leicester South: will Independent lose this seat to Other?

Current forecast

Other

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Other 35.5%
  • Labour 21.6%
  • Green 18.8%
  • Reform UK 13.4%
  • Conservative 7.5%
  • Lib Dems 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Other Labour Green Reform UK
HereLeicester South 35.5%21.6%18.8%13.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 5.0% +30.5 21.8% −0.3 10.8% +7.9 25.4% −11.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leicester South, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with another party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects another party ahead at 36% vote share, against 22% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Shockat Adam

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Other
Margin
4.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+9.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shockat Adam Elected Other 14,739 35.2
Jonathan Ashworth Labour 13,760 32.9
Gerri Hickton Conservative 4,820 11.5
Sharmen Rahman Green 3,826 9.1
Craig Harwood Reform UK 2,470 5.9
Carol Weaver Lib Dems 1,425 3.4
Osman Admani Other 329 0.8
Ann Green Other 279 0.7
Ezechiel Adlore Other 189 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
120,087
Median age
30
Employment rate
67.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029