Riding profile

Leicester East

UK constituency — England · Urban · east midlands

The question

Leicester East: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
95%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 25.8%
  • Other 21.4%
  • Reform UK 19.1%
  • Labour 13.4%
  • Lib Dems 10.9%
  • Green 9.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Other Reform UK Labour
HereLeicester East 25.8%21.4%19.1%13.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +6.4 5.0% +16.4 25.4% −6.3 21.8% −8.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Leicester East, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 26% vote share, against 21% for another party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Shivani Raja

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Shivani Raja Elected Conservative 14,526 31.1
Rajesh Agrawal Labour 10,100 21.6
Zuffar Haq Lib Dems 6,329 13.6
Claudia Webbe Other 5,532 11.8
Keith Vaz Other 3,681 7.9
Raj Solanki Reform UK 2,611 5.6
Mags Lewis Green 2,143 4.6
Malihah Adam Other 974 2.1
Nagarjun Agath Other 703 1.5
Khandu Patel Other 115 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
125,492
Median age
36
Employment rate
65.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029