Riding profile

Mid Leicestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Mid Leicestershire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Reform UK

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
0.5
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Reform UK 31.5%
  • Conservative 31.0%
  • Labour 20.1%
  • Green 10.2%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Reform UK Conservative Labour Green
HereMid Leicestershire 31.5%31.0%20.1%10.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 25.4% +6.1 19.3% +11.6 21.8% −1.7 10.8% −0.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 31% vote share, against 31% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Peter Bedford

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Bedford Elected Conservative 17,735 36.9 —
Robert Martin Labour 15,534 32.3 —
Tom Smith Reform UK 8,923 18.6 —
Tony Deakin Green 3,414 7.1 —
Ian Bradwell Lib Dems 2,444 5.1 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,392
Median age
43
Employment rate
83.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029