Riding profile

Mid Leicestershire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · east midlands

The question

Mid Leicestershire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Mid Leicestershire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Peter Bedford

Sits with Conservative

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.0%
  • Reform UK 29.4%
  • Labour 20.0%
  • Green 12.3%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Other 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Labour Green
HereMid Leicestershire 31.0%29.4%20.0%12.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 18.9% +12.1 25.3% +4.1 21.7% −1.6 11.8% +0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Peter Bedford Elected Conservative 17,735 36.9
Robert Martin Labour 15,534 32.3
Tom Smith Reform UK 8,923 18.6
Tony Deakin Green 3,414 7.1
Ian Bradwell Lib Dems 2,444 5.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,392
Median age
43
Employment rate
83.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029