Riding profile

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.1
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 32.5%
  • SNP 28.4%
  • Reform UK 21.2%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Conservative 5.8%
  • Labour 2.3%
  • Other 1.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems SNP Reform UK Green
HereInverness, Skye and West Ross-shire 32.5%28.4%21.2%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +21.2 2.8% +25.7 25.4% −4.2 10.8% −3.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 33% vote share, against 28% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Mr Angus MacDonald

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
4.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Angus MacDonald Elected Lib Dems 18,159 37.8
Drew Hendry SNP 15,999 33.3
Michael Perera Labour 6,246 13.0
Dillan Hill Reform UK 2,934 6.1
Ruraidh Stewart Conservative 2,502 5.2
Peter Newman Green 2,038 4.2
Darren Paxton Other 178 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
69.6%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029