Riding profile

West Dunbartonshire

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

West Dunbartonshire: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

West Dunbartonshire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 34% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Douglas McAllister

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 34.3%
  • Reform UK 24.2%
  • Labour 22.4%
  • Green 6.2%
  • Conservative 5.2%
  • Lib Dems 4.0%
  • Other 3.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Green
HereWest Dunbartonshire 34.3%24.2%22.4%6.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +31.7 25.3% −1.1 21.7% +0.7 11.8% −5.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
15.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-4.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Douglas McAllister Elected Labour 19,312 48.8
Martin Docherty-Hughes SNP 13,302 33.6
David Smith Reform UK 2,770 7.0
Paula Baker Green 1,496 3.8
Maurice Corry Conservative 1,474 3.7
Paul Kennedy Lib Dems 839 2.1
Andrew Muir Other 318 0.8
Kelly Wilson Other 73 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
70.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029