Riding profile
West Dunbartonshire
The question
West Dunbartonshire: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 18.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWest Dunbartonshire | 39.8% | 21.6% | 19.6% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +37.1 | 25.4% −3.7 | 21.8% −2.2 | 10.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
West Dunbartonshire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 40% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Douglas McAllister
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas McAllister Elected | Labour | 19,312 | 48.8 | — |
| Martin Docherty-Hughes | SNP | 13,302 | 33.6 | — |
| David Smith | Reform UK | 2,770 | 7.0 | — |
| Paula Baker | Green | 1,496 | 3.8 | — |
| Maurice Corry | Conservative | 1,474 | 3.7 | — |
| Paul Kennedy | Lib Dems | 839 | 2.1 | — |
| Andrew Muir | Other | 318 | 0.8 | — |
| Kelly Wilson | Other | 73 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029