West Dunbartonshire
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 29%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Dunbartonshire | 36.0% | 29.6% | 17.5% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+33.1 | 26.5%+3.1 | 22.3%−4.8 | 9.7%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 70.2% |
|---|
Current member
Douglas McAllister · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas McAllister Elected | Labour | 19,312 | 48.8 |
| Martin Docherty-Hughes | SNP | 13,302 | 33.6 |
| David Smith | Reform UK | 2,770 | 7.0 |
| Paula Baker | Green | 1,496 | 3.8 |
| Maurice Corry | Conservative | 1,474 | 3.7 |
| Paul Kennedy | Lib Dems | 839 | 2.1 |
| Andrew Muir | Other | 318 | 0.8 |
| Kelly Wilson | Other | 73 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP, competitive
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, toss-up
- Glasgow West SNP, toss-up
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West SNP, competitive
- East Renfrewshire SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated