Riding profile

Glasgow West

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glasgow West: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 35.8%
  • Labour 23.3%
  • Reform UK 14.6%
  • Green 12.1%
  • Lib Dems 6.0%
  • Conservative 5.5%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereGlasgow West 35.8%23.3%14.6%12.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +33.0 21.8% +1.5 25.4% −10.8 10.8% +1.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Glasgow West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 36% vote share, against 23% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Patricia Ferguson

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patricia Ferguson Elected Labour 18,621 46.7 —
Carol Monaghan SNP 12,175 30.5 —
Nick Quail Green 3,662 9.2 —
Dionne Moore Reform UK 2,098 5.3 —
Faten Hameed Conservative 1,720 4.3 —
James Calder Lib Dems 1,316 3.3 —
John Cormack Other 310 0.8 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
71.0%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029