Glasgow West
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 86%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow West | 31.6% | 29.3% | 13.8% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8%+28.8 | 26.5%+2.9 | 9.7%+4.1 | 22.3%−8.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 71.0% |
|---|
Current member
Patricia Ferguson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patricia Ferguson Elected | Labour | 18,621 | 46.7 |
| Carol Monaghan | SNP | 12,175 | 30.5 |
| Nick Quail | Green | 3,662 | 9.2 |
| Dionne Moore | Reform UK | 2,098 | 5.3 |
| Faten Hameed | Conservative | 1,720 | 4.3 |
| James Calder | Lib Dems | 1,316 | 3.3 |
| John Cormack | Other | 310 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
- Mid Dunbartonshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP, competitive
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated