Riding profile

Glasgow South West

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glasgow South West: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 38.4%
  • Labour 24.0%
  • Reform UK 14.2%
  • Green 11.5%
  • Lib Dems 4.4%
  • Conservative 4.2%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereGlasgow South West 38.4%24.0%14.2%11.5%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +35.6 21.8% +2.2 25.4% −11.1 10.8% +0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Glasgow South West, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 38% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dr Zubir Ahmed

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+5.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Zubir Ahmed Elected Labour 15,552 43.6
Chris Stephens SNP 12,267 34.4
John Hamelink Green 2,727 7.7
Morag McRae Reform UK 2,236 6.3
Mamun Rashid Conservative 1,387 3.9
Paul McGarry Lib Dems 958 2.7
Tony Osy Other 542 1.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
60.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029