Riding profile
East Renfrewshire
The question
East Renfrewshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
SNP
Toss-up
- Probability
- 90%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEast Renfrewshire | 23.6% | 23.0% | 21.3% | 14.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +20.8 | 25.4% −2.4 | 21.8% −0.5 | 19.3% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
East Renfrewshire, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 24% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Blair McDougall
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blair McDougall Elected | Labour | 21,935 | 43.7 | — |
| Kirsten Oswald | SNP | 13,514 | 26.9 | — |
| Sandesh Gulhane | Conservative | 8,494 | 16.9 | — |
| Matt Alexander | Reform UK | 2,360 | 4.7 | — |
| Karen Sharkey | Green | 1,510 | 3.0 | — |
| Alan Grant | Lib Dems | 1,150 | 2.3 | — |
| Maria Reid | Other | 487 | 1.0 | — |
| Allan Steele | Other | 481 | 1.0 | — |
| Colette Walker | Other | 296 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029