Riding profile

Glasgow North

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glasgow North: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 35.2%
  • Labour 26.2%
  • Green 13.8%
  • Reform UK 12.6%
  • Conservative 4.8%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%
  • Other 3.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Green Reform UK
HereGlasgow North 35.2%26.2%13.8%12.6%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +32.4 21.8% +4.4 10.8% +3.0 25.4% −12.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Glasgow North, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 35% vote share, against 26% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Martin Rhodes

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Martin Rhodes Elected Labour 14,655 42.2
Alison Thewliss SNP 11,116 32.0
Iris Duane Green 4,233 12.2
Helen Burns Reform UK 1,655 4.8
Naveed Asghar Conservative 1,366 3.9
Daniel O'Malley Lib Dems 1,142 3.3
Nick Durie Other 572 1.6

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
58.1%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029