Riding profile

Glasgow North East

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glasgow North East: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 37.9%
  • Labour 30.3%
  • Reform UK 12.4%
  • Green 8.3%
  • Other 5.0%
  • Conservative 3.4%
  • Lib Dems 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereGlasgow North East 37.9%30.3%12.4%8.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +35.1 21.8% +8.5 25.4% −13.0 10.8% −2.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Glasgow North East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 14-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 38% vote share, against 30% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Maureen Burke

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
13.6 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Maureen Burke Elected Labour 15,639 45.9
Anne McLaughlin SNP 11,002 32.3
Ewan Lewis Green 2,471 7.3
Jonathan Walmsley Reform UK 2,272 6.7
Robert Connelly Conservative 1,182 3.5
Sheila Thomson Lib Dems 592 1.7
Catherine McKernan Other 551 1.6
Chris Sermanni Other 236 0.7
Gary Steele Other 146 0.4

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
68.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029