Riding profile
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
The question
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereCumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | 34.7% | 27.7% | 18.7% | 7.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.8% +31.9 | 25.4% +2.3 | 21.8% −3.1 | 10.8% −3.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Katrina Murray
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katrina Murray Elected | Labour | 18,513 | 45.2 | — |
| Stuart McDonald | SNP | 14,369 | 35.1 | — |
| Billy Ross | Reform UK | 3,167 | 7.7 | — |
| Satbir Gill | Conservative | 1,939 | 4.7 | — |
| Anne McCrossan | Green | 1,694 | 4.1 | — |
| Adam Harley | Lib Dems | 1,294 | 3.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029