Riding profile

Coatbridge and Bellshill

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Coatbridge and Bellshill: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Coatbridge and Bellshill, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 32% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Frank McNally

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 32.5%
  • Labour 24.4%
  • Reform UK 24.3%
  • Green 6.7%
  • Conservative 4.6%
  • Other 3.8%
  • Lib Dems 3.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereCoatbridge and Bellshill 32.5%24.4%24.3%6.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +29.9 21.7% +2.8 25.3% −1.0 11.8% −5.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
16.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Frank McNally Elected Labour 19,291 49.8
Steven Bonnar SNP 12,947 33.4
Fiona McRae Reform UK 2,601 6.7
Christina Sandhu Conservative 1,382 3.6
Patrick McAleer Green 1,229 3.2
Emma Farthing Lib Dems 671 1.7
Leo Lanahan Other 429 1.1
Drew Gilchrist Other 181 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
80.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029