Riding profile
Airdrie and Shotts
The question
Airdrie and Shotts: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?
Editorial read
Airdrie and Shotts, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Kenneth Stevenson
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
SNP
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.9
- P(close race)
- 5%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAirdrie and Shotts | 30.5% | 26.9% | 23.0% | 5.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.5% +27.9 | 21.7% +5.2 | 25.3% −2.3 | 18.9% −13.0 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Stevenson Elected | Labour | 18,871 | 51.5 | — |
| Anum Qaisar | SNP | 11,324 | 30.9 | — |
| David Hall | Reform UK | 2,971 | 8.1 | — |
| Alexandra Herdman | Conservative | 1,696 | 4.6 | — |
| Lewis Younie | Lib Dems | 725 | 2.0 | — |
| Josh Robertson | Other | 623 | 1.7 | — |
| John Leckie | Other | 456 | 1.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029