Hamilton and Clyde Valley
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 90%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | 30.8% | 29.0% | 18.3% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+4.3 | 2.8%+26.2 | 22.3%−4.0 | 20.0%−10.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 72.2% |
|---|
Current member
Imogen Walker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imogen Walker Elected | Labour | 21,020 | 50.0 |
| Ross Clark | SNP | 11,548 | 27.4 |
| Richard Nelson | Conservative | 4,589 | 10.9 |
| Lisa Judge | Reform UK | 3,299 | 7.8 |
| Kyle Burns | Lib Dems | 1,511 | 3.6 |
| Christopher Ho | Other | 117 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, toss-up
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, toss-up
- East Kilbride and Strathaven Labour, toss-up
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, toss-up
- Rutherglen SNP, toss-up
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated