Riding profile

Hamilton and Clyde Valley

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Hamilton and Clyde Valley: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 32.3%
  • Reform UK 22.4%
  • Labour 22.3%
  • Conservative 9.9%
  • Green 5.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.9%
  • Other 2.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Conservative
HereHamilton and Clyde Valley 32.3%22.4%22.3%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +29.6 25.4% −2.9 21.8% +0.5 19.3% −9.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Hamilton and Clyde Valley, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 32% vote share, against 22% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Imogen Walker

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
22.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-12.7 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Imogen Walker Elected Labour 21,020 50.0
Ross Clark SNP 11,548 27.4
Richard Nelson Conservative 4,589 10.9
Lisa Judge Reform UK 3,299 7.8
Kyle Burns Lib Dems 1,511 3.6
Christopher Ho Other 117 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
72.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029