Riding profile

Hamilton and Clyde Valley

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Hamilton and Clyde Valley: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hamilton and Clyde Valley, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 23-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 26% vote share, against 26% for the SNP, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Imogen Walker

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 26.2%
  • SNP 26.0%
  • Reform UK 23.3%
  • Conservative 9.9%
  • Green 6.9%
  • Lib Dems 5.8%
  • Other 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour SNP Reform UK Conservative
HereHamilton and Clyde Valley 26.2%26.0%23.3%9.9%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +4.5 2.5% +23.5 25.3% −2.1 18.9% −9.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
22.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-20.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Imogen Walker Elected Labour 21,020 50.0
Ross Clark SNP 11,548 27.4
Richard Nelson Conservative 4,589 10.9
Lisa Judge Reform UK 3,299 7.8
Kyle Burns Lib Dems 1,511 3.6
Christopher Ho Other 117 0.3

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
72.2%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029