Riding profile

East Kilbride and Strathaven

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

East Kilbride and Strathaven: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

SNP

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.2
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 29.4%
  • Reform UK 26.2%
  • Labour 21.1%
  • Green 9.2%
  • Conservative 7.4%
  • Lib Dems 3.2%
  • Other 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Reform UK Labour Green
HereEast Kilbride and Strathaven 29.4%26.2%21.1%9.2%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +26.6 25.4% +0.9 21.8% −0.7 10.8% −1.6

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Kilbride and Strathaven, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Joani Reid

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-16.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joani Reid Elected Labour 22,682 48.6 —
Grant Costello SNP 13,625 29.2 —
Ross Lambie Conservative 3,547 7.6 —
David Mills Reform UK 3,377 7.2 —
Ann McGuinness Green 1,811 3.9 —
Aisha Mir Lib Dems 1,074 2.3 —
David Richardson Other 505 1.1 —
Donald MacKay Other 86 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
74.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029