Riding profile

East Kilbride and Strathaven

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

East Kilbride and Strathaven: will Independent lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

East Kilbride and Strathaven, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 28% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Joani Reid

Sits with Independent

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.9
P(close race)
6%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 28.4%
  • Labour 24.7%
  • Reform UK 22.6%
  • Green 7.8%
  • Conservative 7.5%
  • Other 4.6%
  • Lib Dems 4.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereEast Kilbride and Strathaven 28.4%24.7%22.6%7.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +25.9 21.7% +3.0 25.3% −2.7 11.8% −4.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
19.4 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Joani Reid Elected Labour 22,682 48.6
Grant Costello SNP 13,625 29.2
Ross Lambie Conservative 3,547 7.6
David Mills Reform UK 3,377 7.2
Ann McGuinness Green 1,811 3.9
Aisha Mir Lib Dems 1,074 2.3
David Richardson Other 505 1.1
Donald MacKay Other 86 0.2

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
74.7%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029