East Kilbride and Strathaven
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 59% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.0 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | 30.3% | 29.7% | 18.0% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 26.5%+3.8 | 2.8%+26.9 | 22.3%−4.2 | 9.7%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 74.7% |
|---|
Current member
Joani Reid · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joani Reid Elected | Labour | 22,682 | 48.6 |
| Grant Costello | SNP | 13,625 | 29.2 |
| Ross Lambie | Conservative | 3,547 | 7.6 |
| David Mills | Reform UK | 3,377 | 7.2 |
| Ann McGuinness | Green | 1,811 | 3.9 |
| Aisha Mir | Lib Dems | 1,074 | 2.3 |
| David Richardson | Other | 505 | 1.1 |
| Donald MacKay | Other | 86 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rutherglen SNP, toss-up
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North East SNP, toss-up
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, toss-up
- Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated