Riding profile

Glasgow East

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glasgow East: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
13.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 38.5%
  • Labour 25.2%
  • Reform UK 13.9%
  • Green 10.4%
  • Conservative 5.1%
  • Lib Dems 3.9%
  • Other 2.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereGlasgow East 38.5%25.2%13.9%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.8% +35.7 21.8% +3.4 25.4% −11.5 10.8% −0.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Glasgow East, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 38% vote share, against 25% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John Grady

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
10.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Grady Elected Labour 15,543 43.9 —
David Linden SNP 11,759 33.2 —
Amy Kettyles Green 2,727 7.7 —
Donnie McLeod Reform UK 2,371 6.7 —
Thomas Kerr Conservative 1,707 4.8 —
Matthew Clark Lib Dems 872 2.5 —
Liam McLaughlan Other 466 1.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
63.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029