Riding profile

Glasgow South

UK constituency — Scotland · Mixed · scotland

The question

Glasgow South: will Labour lose this seat to SNP?

Editorial read

Glasgow South, a mixed constituency in Scotland, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the SNP ahead at 29% vote share, against 24% for Labour, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gordon McKee

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

SNP

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • SNP 29.4%
  • Labour 23.5%
  • Reform UK 17.4%
  • Green 11.8%
  • Other 8.3%
  • Lib Dems 5.5%
  • Conservative 4.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

SNP Labour Reform UK Green
HereGlasgow South 29.4%23.5%17.4%11.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 2.5% +26.8 21.7% +1.9 25.3% −7.9 11.8% −0.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gordon McKee Elected Labour 17,696 41.8
Stewart McDonald SNP 13,542 32.0
Niall Christie Green 5,554 13.1
Danny Raja Reform UK 1,736 4.1
Haroun Malik Conservative 1,617 3.8
Peter McLaughlin Lib Dems 1,316 3.1
Brian Smith Other 473 1.1
Dhruva Kumar Other 444 1.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Employment rate
74.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029