Riding profile
Romsey and Southampton North
The question
Romsey and Southampton North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Romsey and Southampton North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Caroline Nokes
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.9
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRomsey and Southampton North | 32.3% | 29.4% | 22.3% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +13.4 | 11.6% +17.7 | 25.3% −3.1 | 11.8% −4.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Nokes Elected | Conservative | 19,893 | 39.8 | — |
| Geoff Cooper | Lib Dems | 17,702 | 35.4 | — |
| Paul Barrett | Reform UK | 5,716 | 11.4 | — |
| Christie Lambert | Labour | 4,640 | 9.3 | — |
| Connor Shaw | Green | 1,893 | 3.8 | — |
| Fennie Yap | Other | 183 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029