Riding profile
Romsey and Southampton North
The question
Romsey and Southampton North: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 1.8
- P(close race)
- 100%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereRomsey and Southampton North | 32.4% | 30.6% | 21.9% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 19.3% +13.0 | 11.4% +19.2 | 25.4% −3.4 | 10.8% −2.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Romsey and Southampton North, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 31% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Caroline Nokes
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Nokes Elected | Conservative | 19,893 | 39.8 | — |
| Geoff Cooper | Lib Dems | 17,702 | 35.4 | — |
| Paul Barrett | Reform UK | 5,716 | 11.4 | — |
| Christie Lambert | Labour | 4,640 | 9.3 | — |
| Connor Shaw | Green | 1,893 | 3.8 | — |
| Fennie Yap | Other | 183 | 0.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029