Riding profile

New Forest East

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

New Forest East: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 32.2%
  • Reform UK 26.4%
  • Lib Dems 16.3%
  • Labour 11.3%
  • Green 9.5%
  • Other 4.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereNew Forest East 32.2%26.4%16.3%11.3%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.9 25.4% +1.0 11.4% +5.0 21.8% −10.5

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

New Forest East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sir Julian Lewis

Sits with Conservative

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
18.8 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julian Lewis Elected Conservative 17,412 38.5 —
Sasjkia Otto Labour 8,917 19.7 —
Roy Swales Reform UK 7,646 16.9 —
Caroline Rackham Lib Dems 7,198 15.9 —
Simon King Green 3,118 6.9 —
Mad Hatter Other 529 1.2 —
Andrew Knight Other 410 0.9 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,150
Median age
49
Employment rate
80.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029