Riding profile
New Forest East
The question
New Forest East: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
New Forest East, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 28% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Sir Julian Lewis
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.6
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNew Forest East | 31.6% | 28.0% | 15.0% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +12.7 | 25.3% +2.7 | 11.6% +3.3 | 21.7% −9.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Lewis Elected | Conservative | 17,412 | 38.5 | — |
| Sasjkia Otto | Labour | 8,917 | 19.7 | — |
| Roy Swales | Reform UK | 7,646 | 16.9 | — |
| Caroline Rackham | Lib Dems | 7,198 | 15.9 | — |
| Simon King | Green | 3,118 | 6.9 | — |
| Mad Hatter | Other | 529 | 1.2 | — |
| Andrew Knight | Other | 410 | 0.9 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029