Riding profile
Southampton Test
The question
Southampton Test: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthampton Test | 29.6% | 24.0% | 16.6% | 15.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +7.8 | 25.4% −1.3 | 10.8% +5.8 | 19.3% −3.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Southampton Test, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Satvir Kaur
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satvir Kaur Elected | Labour | 15,945 | 44.5 | — |
| Ben Burcombe-Filer | Conservative | 6,612 | 18.5 | — |
| John Edwards | Reform UK | 5,261 | 14.7 | — |
| Katherine Barbour | Green | 3,594 | 10.0 | — |
| Thomas Gravatt | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 9.1 | — |
| Wajahat Shaukat | Other | 775 | 2.2 | — |
| Maggie Fricker | Other | 366 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029