Riding profile
Southampton Test
The question
Southampton Test: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Southampton Test, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 25% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Satvir Kaur
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.5
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouthampton Test | 30.3% | 25.2% | 16.0% | 14.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +8.6 | 25.3% −0.1 | 11.8% +4.2 | 18.9% −4.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satvir Kaur Elected | Labour | 15,945 | 44.5 | — |
| Ben Burcombe-Filer | Conservative | 6,612 | 18.5 | — |
| John Edwards | Reform UK | 5,261 | 14.7 | — |
| Katherine Barbour | Green | 3,594 | 10.0 | — |
| Thomas Gravatt | Lib Dems | 3,252 | 9.1 | — |
| Wajahat Shaukat | Other | 775 | 2.2 | — |
| Maggie Fricker | Other | 366 | 1.0 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029