Riding profile
Winchester
The question
Winchester: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Winchester, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 42% vote share, against 23% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dr Danny Chambers
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 19.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWinchester | 42.1% | 22.9% | 18.3% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +30.5 | 18.9% +4.0 | 25.3% −7.0 | 11.8% −3.4 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Chambers Elected | Lib Dems | 29,939 | 52.5 | — |
| Flick Drummond | Conservative | 16,118 | 28.2 | — |
| Sean Whelan | Reform UK | 4,797 | 8.4 | — |
| Hannah Dawson | Labour | 3,023 | 5.3 | — |
| Lorraine Estelle | Green | 2,740 | 4.8 | — |
| Andrew Davis | Other | 146 | 0.3 | — |
| Chris Barfoot | Other | 142 | 0.3 | — |
| Kevin D'Cruze | Other | 127 | 0.2 | — |
| Andy Liming | Other | 44 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029