Riding profile

East Hampshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

East Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.1
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.4%
  • Lib Dems 29.3%
  • Reform UK 22.8%
  • Green 8.7%
  • Labour 5.0%
  • Other 2.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Lib Dems Reform UK Green
HereEast Hampshire 31.4%29.3%22.8%8.7%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.1 11.4% +17.9 25.4% −2.6 10.8% −2.1

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

East Hampshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 29% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Damian Hinds

Sits with Conservative

Since
2010-05-06
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.5 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.4 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Damian Hinds Elected Conservative 18,509 37.0 —
Dominic Martin Lib Dems 17,234 34.5 —
Matthew Kellermann Reform UK 6,476 12.9 —
Lucy Sims Labour 4,867 9.7 —
Richard Knight Green 2,404 4.8 —
Jim Makin Other 364 0.7 —
Sara Smith Other 152 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
91,757
Median age
48
Employment rate
77.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029