Riding profile
East Hampshire
The question
East Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
East Hampshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 3-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 30% vote share, against 28% for the Lib Dems, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Damian Hinds
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEast Hampshire | 30.0% | 27.8% | 23.8% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +11.1 | 11.6% +16.2 | 25.3% −1.6 | 11.8% −2.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Hinds Elected | Conservative | 18,509 | 37.0 | — |
| Dominic Martin | Lib Dems | 17,234 | 34.5 | — |
| Matthew Kellermann | Reform UK | 6,476 | 12.9 | — |
| Lucy Sims | Labour | 4,867 | 9.7 | — |
| Richard Knight | Green | 2,404 | 4.8 | — |
| Jim Makin | Other | 364 | 0.7 | — |
| Sara Smith | Other | 152 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029