Riding profile

North East Hampshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

North East Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

North East Hampshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 32% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Alex Brewer

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
2.4
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 31.7%
  • Conservative 29.3%
  • Reform UK 23.6%
  • Green 7.0%
  • Labour 6.0%
  • Other 2.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereNorth East Hampshire 31.7%29.3%23.6%7.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.6% +20.0 18.9% +10.4 25.3% −1.7 11.8% −4.9

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
1.1 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Brewer Elected Lib Dems 21,178 38.1
Ranil Jayawardena Conservative 20,544 37.0
Paul Morton Reform UK 6,673 12.0
Bradley Phillips Labour 5,057 9.1
Mohamed Miah Green 1,425 2.6
Howling (Alan) Hope Other 340 0.6
Duncan Stone Other 274 0.5
Alex Zychowski Other 69 0.1

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
102,335
Median age
44
Employment rate
83.4%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029