Riding profile
North East Hampshire
The question
North East Hampshire: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.8
- P(close race)
- 82%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereNorth East Hampshire | 34.0% | 29.2% | 22.2% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.4% +22.6 | 19.3% +9.9 | 25.4% −3.1 | 10.8% −3.7 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
North East Hampshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 34% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Alex Brewer
Sits with Lib Dems
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Brewer Elected | Lib Dems | 21,178 | 38.1 | — |
| Ranil Jayawardena | Conservative | 20,544 | 37.0 | — |
| Paul Morton | Reform UK | 6,673 | 12.0 | — |
| Bradley Phillips | Labour | 5,057 | 9.1 | — |
| Mohamed Miah | Green | 1,425 | 2.6 | — |
| Howling (Alan) Hope | Other | 340 | 0.6 | — |
| Duncan Stone | Other | 274 | 0.5 | — |
| Alex Zychowski | Other | 69 | 0.1 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029