Riding profile

Reading Central

UK constituency — England · Urban · south east

The question

Reading Central: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 34.0%
  • Green 19.7%
  • Reform UK 17.5%
  • Conservative 17.0%
  • Lib Dems 9.2%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Green Reform UK Conservative
HereReading Central 34.0%19.7%17.5%17.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +12.2 10.8% +8.9 25.4% −7.9 19.3% −2.3

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Reading Central, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 28-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 34% vote share, against 20% for the Green Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Matt Rodda

Sits with Labour

Since
2017-06-08
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
27.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-13.6 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matt Rodda Elected Labour 21,598 47.7
Raj Singh Conservative 8,961 19.8
Dave McElroy Green 6,417 14.2
Henry Wright Lib Dems 3,963 8.8
Andrew Williams Reform UK 3,904 8.6
Michael Turberville Other 227 0.5
Adam Gillman Other 221 0.5

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
116,859
Median age
35
Employment rate
88.3%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029