Riding profile
Henley and Thame
The question
Henley and Thame: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Henley and Thame, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 37% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Freddie van Mierlo
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHenley and Thame | 36.7% | 26.8% | 19.9% | 8.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +25.0 | 18.9% +7.9 | 25.3% −5.5 | 11.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Van Mierlo Elected | Lib Dems | 23,904 | 45.0 | — |
| Caroline Newton | Conservative | 17,637 | 33.2 | — |
| Peter Shields | Reform UK | 5,213 | 9.8 | — |
| Nanda Manley-Browne | Labour | 3,574 | 6.7 | — |
| Jo Robb | Green | 2,008 | 3.8 | — |
| Maryse Pomlett | Other | 515 | 1.0 | — |
| David Carpin | Other | 306 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029