Riding profile
Mid Buckinghamshire
The question
Mid Buckinghamshire: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
Mid Buckinghamshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Greg Smith
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMid Buckinghamshire | 30.5% | 23.9% | 22.6% | 10.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +11.6 | 25.3% −1.5 | 11.6% +10.9 | 21.7% −10.8 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Smith Elected | Conservative | 20,150 | 37.4 | — |
| Anja Schaefer | Lib Dems | 14,278 | 26.5 | — |
| Carissma Griffiths | Labour | 9,171 | 17.0 | — |
| Stephanie Harwood | Reform UK | 6,926 | 12.8 | — |
| Greg Smith | Green | 2,942 | 5.5 | — |
| Yvonne Wilding | Other | 337 | 0.6 | — |
| Wisdom Da Costa | Other | 147 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029