Riding profile

Mid Buckinghamshire

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Mid Buckinghamshire: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 31.9%
  • Lib Dems 23.1%
  • Reform UK 22.6%
  • Green 10.1%
  • Labour 9.8%
  • Other 2.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Lib Dems Reform UK Green
HereMid Buckinghamshire 31.9%23.1%22.6%10.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +12.6 11.4% +11.7 25.4% −2.8 10.8% −0.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Mid Buckinghamshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 32% vote share, against 23% for the Lib Dems, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Greg Smith

Sits with Conservative

Since
2019-12-12
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Conservative
Margin
10.9 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.0 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Greg Smith Elected Conservative 20,150 37.4 —
Anja Schaefer Lib Dems 14,278 26.5 —
Carissma Griffiths Labour 9,171 17.0 —
Stephanie Harwood Reform UK 6,926 12.8 —
Greg Smith Green 2,942 5.5 —
Yvonne Wilding Other 337 0.6 —
Wisdom Da Costa Other 147 0.3 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
100,008
Median age
44
Employment rate
81.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029