Riding profile
Aylesbury
The question
Aylesbury: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Aylesbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Reform UK ahead at 24% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Laura Kyrke-Smith
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Reform UK
Toss-up
- Probability
- 84%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 0.2
- P(close race)
- 100%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAylesbury | 24.1% | 23.8% | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 25.3% −1.2 | 18.9% +4.9 | 21.7% −1.7 | 11.6% +8.3 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Kyrke-Smith Elected | Labour | 15,081 | 30.2 | — |
| Rob Butler | Conservative | 14,451 | 28.9 | — |
| Steve Lambert | Lib Dems | 10,440 | 20.9 | — |
| Lesley Taylor | Reform UK | 6,746 | 13.5 | — |
| Julie Atkins | Green | 2,590 | 5.2 | — |
| Jan Gajdos | Other | 516 | 1.0 | — |
| Richard Wilding | Other | 116 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Dunstable and Leighton BuzzardReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Milton Keynes CentralLabour Toss-upOpen →
- Mid BuckinghamshireConservative Safe seatOpen →
- Chesham and AmershamLib Dems Safe seatOpen →
- Luton South and South BedfordshireReform UK Toss-upOpen →
- Harpenden and BerkhamstedLib Dems Safe seatOpen →
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029