Riding profile

Aylesbury

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Aylesbury: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 25.1%
  • Reform UK 23.3%
  • Lib Dems 20.6%
  • Labour 18.1%
  • Green 9.8%
  • Other 2.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Reform UK Lib Dems Labour
HereAylesbury 25.1%23.3%20.6%18.1%
National averageUnited Kingdom 19.3% +5.8 25.4% −2.1 11.4% +9.2 21.8% −3.7

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Aylesbury, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 25% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Laura Kyrke-Smith

Sits with Labour

Since
2024-07-04
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
1.3 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Laura Kyrke-Smith Elected Labour 15,081 30.2 —
Rob Butler Conservative 14,451 28.9 —
Steve Lambert Lib Dems 10,440 20.9 —
Lesley Taylor Reform UK 6,746 13.5 —
Julie Atkins Green 2,590 5.2 —
Jan Gajdos Other 516 1.0 —
Richard Wilding Other 116 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
111,020
Median age
39
Employment rate
79.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029