Riding profile

Chesham and Amersham

UK constituency — England · Mixed · south east

The question

Chesham and Amersham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?

Current forecast

Lib Dems

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Lib Dems 38.8%
  • Conservative 28.7%
  • Reform UK 19.5%
  • Green 6.8%
  • Labour 3.6%
  • Other 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Lib Dems Conservative Reform UK Green
HereChesham and Amersham 38.8%28.7%19.5%6.8%
National averageUnited Kingdom 11.4% +27.5 19.3% +9.4 25.4% −5.9 10.8% −4.0

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Chesham and Amersham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 39% vote share, against 29% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Sarah Green

Sits with Lib Dems

Since
2021-06-17
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Lib Dems
Margin
10.0 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sarah Green Elected Lib Dems 24,422 44.9 —
Gareth Williams Conservative 18,971 34.8 —
Laurence Jarvis Reform UK 5,310 9.8 —
Chris Chilton Labour 3,502 6.4 —
Justine Fulford Green 1,673 3.1 —
Muhammad Khan Other 466 0.9 —
Julian Foster Other 111 0.2 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
99,904
Median age
44
Employment rate
78.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029