Riding profile
Chesham and Amersham
The question
Chesham and Amersham: a safe seat for the Lib Dems?
Editorial read
Chesham and Amersham, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Lib Dems in the previous cycle, with a 10-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Lib Dems ahead at 35% vote share, against 28% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Sarah Green
Sits with Lib Dems
Current forecast
Lib Dems
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereChesham and Amersham | 35.5% | 28.3% | 19.8% | 8.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 11.6% +23.8 | 18.9% +9.4 | 25.3% −5.5 | 11.8% −3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Green Elected | Lib Dems | 24,422 | 44.9 | — |
| Gareth Williams | Conservative | 18,971 | 34.8 | — |
| Laurence Jarvis | Reform UK | 5,310 | 9.8 | — |
| Chris Chilton | Labour | 3,502 | 6.4 | — |
| Justine Fulford | Green | 1,673 | 3.1 | — |
| Muhammad Khan | Other | 466 | 0.9 | — |
| Julian Foster | Other | 111 | 0.2 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029