Riding profile
South West Hertfordshire
The question
South West Hertfordshire: a safe seat for the Conservatives?
Editorial read
South West Hertfordshire, a mixed constituency in England, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 29% vote share, against 23% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Mr Gagan Mohindra
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSouth West Hertfordshire | 28.9% | 23.4% | 21.0% | 13.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 18.9% +10.0 | 25.3% −2.0 | 11.6% +9.4 | 21.7% −8.2 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gagan Mohindra Elected | Conservative | 16,458 | 34.1 | — |
| Sally Symington | Lib Dems | 12,002 | 24.9 | — |
| Alex Sufit | Labour | 9,637 | 20.0 | — |
| Keith Steers | Reform UK | 6,790 | 14.1 | — |
| Narinder Sian | Green | 2,532 | 5.3 | — |
| Bernadette O'Malley | Other | 295 | 0.6 | — |
| Victor Silkin | Other | 232 | 0.5 | — |
| Michael McGetrick | Other | 158 | 0.3 | — |
| Ketankumar Pipaliya | Other | 150 | 0.3 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029