Riding profile

Harrow West

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Harrow West: a safe seat for Labour?

Current forecast

Labour

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 32.1%
  • Conservative 25.6%
  • Reform UK 16.2%
  • Other 10.4%
  • Green 8.8%
  • Lib Dems 6.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Other
HereHarrow West 32.1%25.6%16.2%10.4%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +10.3 19.3% +6.3 25.4% −9.2 5.0% +5.4

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Harrow West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 32% vote share, against 26% for the Conservatives, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gareth Thomas

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
14.7 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.1 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gareth Thomas Elected Labour 19,833 43.8 —
Abbas Merali Conservative 13,191 29.2 —
Pamela Fitzpatrick Other 4,120 9.1 —
Michael Beavis Reform UK 2,639 5.8 —
Rupert Nepal George Green 2,438 5.4 —
Chris Noyce Lib Dems 2,404 5.3 —
Bharatkumar Ishverbhai Patel Other 616 1.4 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
122,230
Median age
36
Employment rate
72.8%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029