Riding profile
Harrow West
The question
Harrow West: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Harrow West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 31% vote share, against 24% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Gareth Thomas
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.7
- P(close race)
- 90%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHarrow West | 30.7% | 24.3% | 16.2% | 11.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +9.0 | 18.9% +5.4 | 25.3% −9.2 | 11.8% −0.1 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gareth Thomas Elected | Labour | 19,833 | 43.8 | — |
| Abbas Merali | Conservative | 13,191 | 29.2 | — |
| Pamela Fitzpatrick | Other | 4,120 | 9.1 | — |
| Michael Beavis | Reform UK | 2,639 | 5.8 | — |
| Rupert Nepal George | Green | 2,438 | 5.4 | — |
| Chris Noyce | Lib Dems | 2,404 | 5.3 | — |
| Bharatkumar Ishverbhai Patel | Other | 616 | 1.4 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029