Riding profile
Ealing North
The question
Ealing North: a safe seat for Labour?
Editorial read
Ealing North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
James Murray
Sits with Labour
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 15.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEaling North | 34.5% | 17.9% | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.7% +12.9 | 25.3% −7.5 | 18.9% −3.3 | 11.8% +3.6 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Previous election · UK 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Murray Elected | Labour | 20,663 | 47.8 | — |
| Maria Khan | Conservative | 8,144 | 18.8 | — |
| Natalia Kubica | Green | 4,056 | 9.4 | — |
| Leon Harris | Reform UK | 3,948 | 9.1 | — |
| Sam Habeeb | Other | 3,139 | 7.3 | — |
| Craig O'Donnell | Lib Dems | 2,543 | 5.9 | — |
| Helmi Alharahsheh | Other | 499 | 1.1 | — |
| Les Beaumont | Other | 240 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
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- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029