Riding profile
Ealing North
The question
Ealing North: a safe seat for Labour?
Current forecast
Labour
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEaling North | 35.4% | 18.0% | 17.3% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 21.8% +13.6 | 25.4% −7.3 | 19.3% −2.0 | 10.8% +1.5 |
Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Editorial read
Ealing North, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 35% vote share, against 18% for Reform UK, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
James Murray
Sits with Labour
Previous election · 2024
Detailed result · UK 2024
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Murray Elected | Labour | 20,663 | 47.8 | — |
| Maria Khan | Conservative | 8,144 | 18.8 | — |
| Natalia Kubica | Green | 4,056 | 9.4 | — |
| Leon Harris | Reform UK | 3,948 | 9.1 | — |
| Sam Habeeb | Other | 3,139 | 7.3 | — |
| Craig O'Donnell | Lib Dems | 2,543 | 5.9 | — |
| Helmi Alharahsheh | Other | 499 | 1.1 | — |
| Les Beaumont | Other | 240 | 0.6 | — |
Demographics
Who lives here
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
uk_2029