Riding profile

Brent West

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Brent West: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.1%
  • Conservative 27.1%
  • Reform UK 16.6%
  • Green 10.0%
  • Lib Dems 8.0%
  • Other 7.8%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Birmingham ErdingtonReform UK60 %0.5 pt margin
  2. Derby NorthLabour62 %0.5 pt margin
  3. Middlesbrough and Thornaby EastReform UK62 %0.5 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereBrent West 30.1%27.1%16.6%10.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.8% +8.3 19.3% +7.8 25.4% −8.7 10.8% −0.8

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Editorial read

Brent West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Barry Gardiner

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-6.2 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Barry Gardiner Elected Labour 17,258 41.7 —
Sushil Rapatwar Conservative 13,465 32.5 —
Paul Lorber Lib Dems 3,013 7.3 —
Baston De'Medici-Jaguar Green 2,805 6.8 —
Nadia Klok Other 2,774 6.7 —
Ian Collier Reform UK 2,061 5.0 —

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
136,768
Median age
35
Employment rate
73.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029