Riding profile

Brent West

UK constituency — England · Urban · london

The question

Brent West: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Brent West, an urban constituency in England, elected a member with Labour in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects Labour ahead at 30% vote share, against 27% for the Conservatives, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Barry Gardiner

Sits with Labour

Since
1997-05-01
Parliament
59th

Current forecast

Labour

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
100%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Labour 30.1%
  • Conservative 26.9%
  • Reform UK 15.4%
  • Green 12.0%
  • Lib Dems 9.0%
  • Other 6.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Labour Conservative Reform UK Green
HereBrent West 30.1%26.9%15.4%12.0%
National averageUnited Kingdom 21.7% +8.4 18.9% +8.0 25.3% −9.9 11.8% +0.2

Nationwide averages computed across the 650 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Previous election · UK 2024

Won by
Labour
Margin
9.2 pts
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.5 pts

Detailed result · UK 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Barry Gardiner Elected Labour 17,258 41.7
Sushil Rapatwar Conservative 13,465 32.5
Paul Lorber Lib Dems 3,013 7.3
Baston De'Medici-Jaguar Green 2,805 6.8
Nadia Klok Other 2,774 6.7
Ian Collier Reform UK 2,061 5.0

Demographics

Who lives here

Population
136,768
Median age
35
Employment rate
73.5%

Data source : ONS mid-2022 population + Jan 2026 labour market

Last model run
Cycle
uk_2029